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	<title>Kaiwen Blog 凯文的博客 &#187; thoughts</title>
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	<link>http://kaiwen.org</link>
	<description>alive and free</description>
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	<copyright>2009 </copyright>
	<managingEditor>blog@kaiwen.org (Kaiwen Blog 凯文的博客)</managingEditor>
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		<title>Kaiwen Blog 凯文的博客 &#187; thoughts</title>
		<link>http://kaiwen.org/wordpress</link>
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	<itunes:summary>"Be the change you wish to see in the world." - Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi</itunes:summary>
	<itunes:keywords></itunes:keywords>
	<itunes:category text="Society &amp; Culture" />
	<itunes:author>Kaiwen Blog 凯文的博客</itunes:author>
	<itunes:owner>
		<itunes:name>Kaiwen Blog 凯文的博客</itunes:name>
		<itunes:email>blog@kaiwen.org</itunes:email>
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		<title>Thought: Camry Rhapsody</title>
		<link>http://kaiwen.org/2010/03/camry-rhapsody/</link>
		<comments>http://kaiwen.org/2010/03/camry-rhapsody/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Mar 2010 04:40:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kaiwen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[thoughts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kaiwen.org/2010/03/thought-camry-rhapsody/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I remember 10 years ago, Microsoft Windows 95 crashed so much that we have the joke If Microsoft Built Cars: &#34;Occasionally your car would just die on the motorway for no reason, accept this, restart and drive on.&#34; Today, most operating systems have become very stable that they can run many days without crashing, but [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I remember 10 years ago, Microsoft Windows 95 crashed so much that we have the joke <em>If Microsoft Built Cars</em>: &quot;Occasionally your car would just die on the motorway for no reason, accept this, restart and drive on.&quot;</p>
<p>Today, most operating systems have become very stable that they can run many days without crashing, but Toyota&#8217;s cars, famous for quality and dependability, are crashing left and right, <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/35775457">even after re-call service</a>.&#160; Even though Toyota claims it is mechanical problem, but people widely speculates that it is a software bug from dozens of micro-chips in the car.&#160; The computer joke is creeping into my Camry now.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, I think the trend of increased computer use in automobiles will continue.&#160; Ten years in the future, after numerous trials and errors, those software bugs will be worked out and safety laws will enforce software safety requirements.&#160; Another ten years later, because software-controlled cars are so common place and the computer can drive so much faster and safer, some super highways might allow computer-drivers or computer-assisted driving only, like some sci-fi movies.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/09/toyotas-are-safe-enough/">&quot;driving one of these suspect Toyotas raises your chances of dying in a car crash over the next two years from .01907 percent (that’s 19 one-thousandths of 1 percent, when rounded off) to .01935 percent (also 19 one-thousandths of one percent)&quot;</a>, so I will continue driving my Camry, learn how to stop a gone-wild Camry, and prepare to enjoy the unexpected thrill.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>Thought: Tiger</title>
		<link>http://kaiwen.org/2010/02/tiger/</link>
		<comments>http://kaiwen.org/2010/02/tiger/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Feb 2010 22:42:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kaiwen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[thoughts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kaiwen.org/?p=129</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On the eve of Chinese Tiger New Year, New York Times has an article about tiger farms in China.  The author, Mr. Andrew Jacobs, highlighted that the Chinese appetite for tiger parts are the biggest thread to the largest predator in Asia, and the government&#8217;s support for the farm is fueling the market. It is [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the eve of Chinese Tiger New Year, New York Times has an article about <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/13/world/asia/13tiger.html">tiger farms in China</a>.  The author, <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/topics/reference/timestopics/people/j/andrew_jacobs/">Mr. Andrew Jacobs</a>, highlighted that the Chinese appetite for tiger parts are the biggest thread to the largest predator in Asia, and the government&#8217;s support for the farm is fueling the market.</p>
<p>It is already difficult to stop Chinese from smoking (the leading cause of death, more than environmental caused cancer) due to the social environment.  It is probably harder to erase their demand for something related to health, unless their cultural identities are changed.  It reminds me <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=111379908">the human organ market</a>, originating from Israel.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://you.video.sina.com.cn/b/1663660-1280767614.html">video link provided in the article</a> is in Chinese.  It argues that the farms are helping preserve tigers, incurring a cost of millions of dollars a year for feeding 1500 in the largest farm in Guilin.  After more than 18 years in operation, it seeks economic sustainability by tapping tigers from natural death (aging and fighting).</p>
<p>It seems to me that might be reasonable, but transparency and supervision are required.  I also need to think through the numbers to see if it makes sense.</p>
<p><!-- http://anthropology.berkeley.edu/nsh.html http://www.publicanthropology.org/TimesPast/Scheper-Hughes.htm http://www.wrmea.com/component/content/article/321-2009-november/6602-israeli-organ-trafficking-and-theft-from-moldova-to-palestine.html --></p>
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		<title>Thought: Google&#8217;s China Focus</title>
		<link>http://kaiwen.org/2010/02/googles-china-focus/</link>
		<comments>http://kaiwen.org/2010/02/googles-china-focus/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Feb 2010 03:49:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kaiwen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[thoughts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kaiwen.org/?p=118</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One possible outcome, of course, is that Google pulls out of China.  Then there is not much more to talk about.  What if, what if Google does not at the end, wow, what a power move in negotiation and PR stunt.  Talking about the difference between the thread of force and the use of force, starting [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One possible outcome, of course, is that Google pulls out of China.  Then there is not much more to talk about.  What if, what if Google does not at the end, wow, what a power move in negotiation and PR stunt.  Talking about the difference between the thread of force and the use of force, starting with no.  Google now has gained the world&#8217;s attention, again (outside of the largest Internet user base of China, of course).</p>
<p>But even when Google stays, it needs another power to succeed in China, the power of focus.  China is a primary market in its own right, flock of people and businesses are thinking everyday how to succeed <em>and </em>survive there, purely thinking in Chinese.  Google sure can thrive in the US with all its top PhD talents single-mindedly pursuing product perfection, but can the same products succeed just by putting on a different resource bundle (tech term for user interface in another language)?</p>
<p>It is a given that people living in China think differently from those in America, but not that different and quite understandable if you give it enough thought and are willing to use all available <em>and</em> ethical means.  My proposal number one is that Google partners with Microsoft in China.  As far as I know, Windows (not Mac OS or Linux) is the OS in China, critical for MSN messenger to get a foot hold amid vast users of QQ.  Yes, you are fierce competitors everywhere else, as with Apple and Yahoo, but in China, it makes sense that you two (yes, you Google and Microsoft) work together.</p>
<p>I have not thought through the upside for Microsoft, so my proposal number two is that Google should make China the primary market of the upcoming Chrome OS.  It is free and it is all about online applications (including online games).</p>
<p>to be continued: champion of green tech and none pornography</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Thought: The FoxL2 Gene and Criminals</title>
		<link>http://kaiwen.org/2009/12/foxl2-gene/</link>
		<comments>http://kaiwen.org/2009/12/foxl2-gene/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Dec 2009 15:43:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kaiwen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[thoughts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[china population]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foxl2]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sex gene]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sox9]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kaiwen.org/?p=95</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A recent scientific finding published on the journal Cell describe a gene in female, FoxL2, which when turned off, can unleash the male gene Sox9. The ovaries of a female mice without FoxL2 become testes, producing same level of testosterone as male mice. Minnie becomes Mickey. That caused me to think some social issues. First, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A recent <a href="http://www.cell.com/abstract/S0092-8674(09)01494-9">scientific finding published on the journal Cell</a> describe a gene in female, FoxL2, which when turned off, can unleash the male gene Sox9.  The ovaries of a female mice without FoxL2 become testes, producing same level of testosterone as male mice.  Minnie becomes Mickey.</p>
<p>That caused me to think some social issues.  First, China has a problem with preferring boys over girls.  Because of deep cultural tradition and perception of a son over daughter in elderly care, parents want to have boys.  But when the boys grow up, there too many boys, and they need girls to get married.  What if, with the switch of a gene, the hospital switch the gender of babies when they are little.  When they grow up, they switch back, so everyone is happy.  It is just like <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/6780233/Battle-of-the-sexes---one-gene-keeps-us-either-male-or-female-scientists-find.html">some of the fish which can &#8220;switch sexes at times when there is a scarcity of either males or females&#8221;</a>.</p>
<p>Second, what if we turn on FoxL2 in male?  Will that turn off Sox9 gene and testosterone in male, turning man into woman?  It is a fact that, compared to women, men are predominantly the aggressors in the society, causing various social problems (crimes, wars, etc.).  Rather than keeping men in prison, what if we give them a gene therapy, just turn off their Sox9?  Is this a humane solution?</p>
<p>Certainly, there are broader considerations for both of these solutions.  The China population issue, the real solution might be to give people real insurance when they grow old, and to change the cultural view on girls.  For the crime solution, education might be more fundamental than mere gender switch.</p>
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		<title>Thoughts on the Import Certificates</title>
		<link>http://kaiwen.org/2009/04/thoughts-on-the-import-certificates/</link>
		<comments>http://kaiwen.org/2009/04/thoughts-on-the-import-certificates/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2009 04:24:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kaiwen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[thoughts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[import certificate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[import certificates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[warren buffet]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kaiwen.org/?p=43</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I stumbled upon Warren Buffet&#8217;s 2003 article about U.S. Deficit.  The deficit simply cannot run forever, as it has negative consequences for both the US and foreign countries that are manifested in current economic debacle.  I like Buffet&#8217;s idea of using the Import Certificate (ICs), a market-force friendly way, to achieve trade balance for U.S. import [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I stumbled upon Warren Buffet&#8217;s <a href="http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/growing.pdf">2003 article about U.S. Deficit</a>.  The deficit simply cannot run forever, as it has negative consequences for both the US and foreign countries that are manifested in current economic debacle.  I like Buffet&#8217;s idea of using the Import Certificate (ICs), a market-force friendly way, to achieve trade balance for U.S. import and export.  The idea is that the US government issues ICs to all US exporters in the same amount of their export value.  The exporter then sell their ICs to US importers or foreign exporters to the US, probably in a market.</p>
<p>I have a few additional thoughts on Buffet&#8217;s idea.  First, the 1-for-1 ratio is too dramatic to get started.  We can think the ratio as a continuum from the current actual ratio to the target ratio of 1-for-1.  Thus, at the beginning, we can start issuing ICs comparable the current trade deficit ratio.  With a target date when the trade balance should be achieved, say 5 years, we adjust the ratio month-by-month gradually toward the 1-for-1 target.</p>
<p>Second, different countries may have different deficit ratio now.  We can let the beginning ratio to be specific to each country, while keeping the same pace for merging into the target ratio.</p>
<p>Third, we can have an even gentler ramp-up period, where we start the ICs ratio equal to the previous period&#8217;s deficit statistics.  When the deficit reduce, we continue to adjust the ratio, but never adjust with any deficit increases.  When the market is warmed up to the ICs, say in a year, we start the time clock to drive the ratio towards our 1-for-1 target.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Phase Change</title>
		<link>http://kaiwen.org/2009/03/phase-change/</link>
		<comments>http://kaiwen.org/2009/03/phase-change/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Mar 2009 04:15:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kaiwen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[thoughts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kaiwen.org/?p=40</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;I&#8217;m a firm believer in luck. The harder I work the luckier I get.&#8221; -Dick Motta Generally speaking, phase change from mediocrity to excellence requires extraordinary inputs, which we often describe as inspiration, commitment, focus, perseverance, talent, etc..  Money per se, without intrinsic value to our life or sense of calling, cannot create such brilliant [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;I&#8217;m a firm believer in luck. The harder I work the luckier I get.&#8221; -Dick Motta</p>
<p>Generally speaking, phase change from mediocrity to excellence requires extraordinary inputs, which we often describe as inspiration, commitment, focus, perseverance, talent, etc..  Money per se, without intrinsic value to our life or sense of calling, cannot create such brilliant and consistent energy, except for desire of shortcuts planted into our mind by external influences.</p>
<p>There are two general human drives that can create such commitment and perseverance.  First, you are very poor physically or psychologically, and your survival instinct drives you to extraordinary height, often with some luck elements as in the surviver bias.  Second, you have a comfortable life with no distractions, and you found the passion of your life, which makes you unstoppable.  In success or failure, you charge on, completely obsorbed.</p>
<p>Let us call the first kind of drive the drive of survival, the second the drive of calling.  An ideal society should eliminate its average citizens the drive of survival and provide an environment for the drive of calling.  However, the path to the drive of calling remains squarely in the hands of each individual.</p>
<div>It is possible to take both drives to make the phase change.  For example, someone may be poor psychologically, and the feeling of insecurity is compensated with a drive of calling.</div>
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		<item>
		<title>Kindle Wish List</title>
		<link>http://kaiwen.org/2009/03/kindle-wish-list/</link>
		<comments>http://kaiwen.org/2009/03/kindle-wish-list/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 2009 04:58:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>kaiwen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[thoughts]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://kaiwen.org/?p=25</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here are my wish list for Kindle: Password protection (software) Chinese display support (software): UTF-8 Content organization support (software): folder or tagging Shortcut setup (software): supports jumping around among several relevant materials across contents in the library Paper version and kindle version bundle (business model): classics needs both paper version for reference and kindle version [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here are my wish list for Kindle:</p>
<ol>
<li>Password protection (software)</li>
<li>Chinese display support (software): UTF-8</li>
<li>Content organization support (software): folder or tagging</li>
<li>Shortcut setup (software): supports jumping around among several relevant materials across contents in the library</li>
<li>Paper version and kindle version bundle (business model): classics needs both paper version for reference and kindle version for reading</li>
<li>Tactical navigation (hardware): horizontal slider or touch-sensitive stripe below the screen (next to the progress bar) with a simple, small, and responsive digital display similar to a dumb watch to indicate location in the reading or list.</li>
</ol>
]]></content:encoded>
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